6/13/25:  Ag complex couldn’t have looked more bearish this past week.  It felt like going home this week we may push things and test the lows as early as next week.  Then last night Israel struck Iran, and Iran attempted to strike back.  Netanyahu called it the most important moment in the history of Israel and that they are committed to continue striking for as long as it takes.  Trump’s main comments have been Iran was warned and took no action.  It feels like it will be a long weekend of strikes between the two countries.  Crude oil took off, AG futures are following wheat up 10-15 cents, beans up 25 cents and corn up 2-5 cents.  Will likely follow crude to the close today, massive fund short likely also spinning out of some shorts ahead of what could be an interesting weekend.  Wheat still a dime away from highs made just a week ago.  That would be our first major resistance point.  In addition to the attack, the Trump administration is proposing oil refiners blend more biofuels into gas and diesel next year.  Playing a part in pushing soybeans and bean oil higher this morning

6/12/25:  USDA didn’t give ag markets anything to get excited about on today’s reports.  Ending stocks were lowered for both US corn and wheat but only modestly.  Current carryout stayed unchanged for wheat while corn lowered from 1.42 billion bu to 1.37 billion bu.  Next year’s carryout for wheat lowered from 923 million bu to 898 million bu.  Corn lowered from 1.8 billion to 1.75 billion.  South American row crop production was left completely unchanged from Mays numbers.  World ending stocks for next year on wheat were lowered from 265.73 million metric tons to 262.76 million metric tons, corn down from 277.84 MMT to 275.25 MMT.  Total US wheat production was left unchanged with a slight increase in exports the reason for the drop in ending stocks.  We currently sit at 45% stocks to use ratio which doesn’t indicate much of a problem, but 15/16 and 18/19 we were over 50% so not as bearish as we have seen in the past 10 years.  Russian wheat production was left unchanged at 83 MMT, seems like they are lagging what the rest of the market feels like is a crop that is increasing.  Report provided little excitement and emboldened fund money to keep selling all rallies.  Until we see a political driven shift that changes export lanes or a weather wreck, they will continue to be right in doing so.  Spring wheat started to separate itself again today with rain now moving out of the forecast in Canada.  KC ended the day down 3 cents, Chicago down 7 cents and spring wheat up 4 cents.  Export sales this morning for wheat were 389K MT, below trade expectations.  HRW led the way at 185K. HRS 86K and SWW 47K.  Corn exports totaled 791K MT with the main buyers being Japan Mexico and Columbia.  Amount was the lower end but in line with expectations.  Exports also didn’t give the market any excitement.  

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